In theory, it should be the perfect target for Ukip.
It is the Brexit capital of the UK, with the strongest vote for leaving the European Union in the whole country.
In the south Lincolnshire local authority of Boston, 75.6 per cent of people backed Brexit.
The population of Boston increased by 15.9 per cent between 2001 and 2011, according to the last census – twice the national average.
The largest increase in population was among people in their 20s – showing a large increase in the working population.
This has led to tensions in the community, with jobs being seen to be under pressure. More than a sixth of people in Boston are process plant and machine operatives, while a further 13 per cent are skilled tradespeople.
Such frustration should be perfect for Ukip, which hopes to capitalise on economic stagnation, anti-immigrant and anti-establishment feeling to capture votes for a new direction.
UKIP’s Paul Nuttall: Stoke by-election was a “one-off”
Considering the fact that Tory support is increasing – with the latest polling showing that two thirds of 2015 Ukip supporters will switch to Theresa May’s party in the upcoming general election – it’s hard to see how Nuttall could take the constituency.
The most likely outcome in this Tory-held, Brexit-backing constituency is that the Conservatives will hold the constituency with a greater majority.
And Nuttall doesn’t have a good track record.
Earlier this year, he stood as Ukip’s candidate in the Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election.
This was seen as another Brexit stronghold – and this time it was a Labour seat, which would’ve been seen as an easier target owing to Jeremy Corbyn’s dire position in the polls.
But Nuttall failed in this by-election. The party leader increased Ukip’s vote share by just 2.1 points, and fell short of Labour’s vote share by 12.4 points.
All the polling suggests that the same would happen in his attempt to take Boston and Skegness.